Thursday, June 26, 2008
Thursday, June 26th, 2008 Recap
Today was a crummy day in the market. The DOW was down 358 points closing at 11,453. There was just a lot of bad news for traders to sell on. We had the RIMM and Oracle news from yesterday and then Oil was way up as well. It also didn't help that Goldman Sachs downgraded both Citigroup and General Motors to a sell rating. June has now officially become the worst month for the stock market since the great depression. My portfolio again outperformed the DOW as it was down just short of 2% and the DOW was down a little more than 3%. However, this is little consolation. I never like to lose money, but 2% of your portfolio in one day is especially tough to swallow. The two biggest losers in my portfolio were GE and Apple which were both down more than 5%. I had only two winners, Teva Pharmaceuticals and the US Oil Fund (USO).
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Wednesday, June 25th, 2008 Recap
The market was plagued by another late day selloff which erased earlier gains. When the dust settled, the DOW was up only 4 points closing at 11,812. The decline started shortly after the Fed announced no change in the Fed Funds Rate. Early in the day oil, natural gas and all the energy names sold off while the financials rallied. After the Fed announcement, everything turned around as oil, natural gas and all the energy names rallied into the close while the financials sold off. Before the bell Monsanto (MON) announced earnings that exceeded expectations, but the stock was down on the day. Apparently, the guidance going forward was not enough to spark a further rally. This stock has been on fire for the last several months and I have wanted to add the name to my portfolio for some time, but there just hasn't been enough of a pullback yet for me to get in. If the stock were to drop to $125, I would pull the trigger. After the bell, Research in Motion (RIMM) and Oracle (ORCL) both announced earnings. RIMM's results were a little short of the market expectations, and the stock sold off about 10% in after-hours trading. Oracle, on the other hand, announced very good earnings, but the stock sold off after hours as the company was cautious on their outlook for the next quarter.
News specific to my portfolio:
My portfolio was up .4% today which again outperformed the DOW. I think I'll start keeping score on a day-to-day basis. This week I'm 3-0, so that's where we'll start the record keeping. The biggest gainer in the portfolio today was Apple (AAPL) which was up more than 4%. There was no particular news on the company today. However, the stock did sell off some in after-hours trading most likely due to the RIMM news. I think you can buy this stock if it falls into the low 170's tomorrow. One other stock of note in the portfolio was US Steel (X). I have been talking a lot about the $185 level because this served as resistance for the stock for the last month or so. On Monday, the stock broke through that level and closed over $190. I think the $185 level now serves as support. Today we got good evidence of that as the stock sold off sharply early in the day, hitting an intraday low of $184.88. The stock bounced off this level hard and finished up 1.29% at $191.96. I still think this stock will see $200 by July, 4th. There was one stock in the portfolio that was a bad underperformer, The Chemical & Mining Company of Chile (SQM). I added the stock to my portfolio yesterday. In Tuesday's report, I mentioned that the stock had been on fire and I wanted to get in, even though I don't normally do that. This proved to be a bad decision and I quickly sold out of my position this morning when the stock dropped under $49. I decided there was a better way to play this than just taking the long side. After selling my shares, I bought one July 50 call and one July 45 put. Basically, I'm betting that the stock will continue to be volatile for the next few weeks. Hopefully, I will be able to sell one of these contracts for enough of a profit to cover the cost of both and still have some money left over. This is a risky strategy, but one I'm willing to try at this time given the volatility of the stock and what I perceive to be cheap premiums on the options. I made one other move today, selling some December 24 calls in Altria (MO). The stock had a nice pop at the open on an upgrade. When I sold the calls, the stock was trading around $21.75. By the end of the day, the stock had dropped closer to $21.25. It's a long time until December, but I feel like I know this stock pretty well and it usually doesn't move that quickly. In the past I have thought about selling calls when I felt the stock moved up too far too fast, but I always decided against it hoping the stock would continue upward. Today, I decided to sell the calls because I felt it would probably go back down in the near term. Only time will tell if I'm right.
News specific to my portfolio:
My portfolio was up .4% today which again outperformed the DOW. I think I'll start keeping score on a day-to-day basis. This week I'm 3-0, so that's where we'll start the record keeping. The biggest gainer in the portfolio today was Apple (AAPL) which was up more than 4%. There was no particular news on the company today. However, the stock did sell off some in after-hours trading most likely due to the RIMM news. I think you can buy this stock if it falls into the low 170's tomorrow. One other stock of note in the portfolio was US Steel (X). I have been talking a lot about the $185 level because this served as resistance for the stock for the last month or so. On Monday, the stock broke through that level and closed over $190. I think the $185 level now serves as support. Today we got good evidence of that as the stock sold off sharply early in the day, hitting an intraday low of $184.88. The stock bounced off this level hard and finished up 1.29% at $191.96. I still think this stock will see $200 by July, 4th. There was one stock in the portfolio that was a bad underperformer, The Chemical & Mining Company of Chile (SQM). I added the stock to my portfolio yesterday. In Tuesday's report, I mentioned that the stock had been on fire and I wanted to get in, even though I don't normally do that. This proved to be a bad decision and I quickly sold out of my position this morning when the stock dropped under $49. I decided there was a better way to play this than just taking the long side. After selling my shares, I bought one July 50 call and one July 45 put. Basically, I'm betting that the stock will continue to be volatile for the next few weeks. Hopefully, I will be able to sell one of these contracts for enough of a profit to cover the cost of both and still have some money left over. This is a risky strategy, but one I'm willing to try at this time given the volatility of the stock and what I perceive to be cheap premiums on the options. I made one other move today, selling some December 24 calls in Altria (MO). The stock had a nice pop at the open on an upgrade. When I sold the calls, the stock was trading around $21.75. By the end of the day, the stock had dropped closer to $21.25. It's a long time until December, but I feel like I know this stock pretty well and it usually doesn't move that quickly. In the past I have thought about selling calls when I felt the stock moved up too far too fast, but I always decided against it hoping the stock would continue upward. Today, I decided to sell the calls because I felt it would probably go back down in the near term. Only time will tell if I'm right.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Tuesday, June 24th, 2008 Recap
Today was pretty quiet as the DOW was down 35 points to finish at 11,807. The Fed started a two day meeting today and we will get the all-important "statement" along with the announcement on interest rates. Most traders are not expecting a rate change from the Fed, but they are expecting tougher language on inflation in the statement. I agree that the Fed will leave rates unchanged, but I'm not sure what that will mean for the market. Obviously, we're in a tough environment for stocks right now. Inflation is running high and the economy is getting weaker. Hopefully, at some point we'll get some relief on energy prices which is a must if we're going to see things get going again.
News specific to my portfolio:
I was lucky again today as my portfolio was up a little while the DOW was down a little. Yesterday's two biggest winners, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) & Bucyrus International (BUCY), were today's two biggest losers. CHK lost about 3.5% to finish at $65.45 and BUCY was down 2.2% finishing at $75.99. The two biggest winners were US Bancorp (USB), which was up more than 3.5% to finish at $29.93, and Raytheon (RTN) which was up 3.28% to finish at $59.25. I suspect that Nat Gas being down a little gave folks a reason to take some profits in CHK. BUCY has been on a tear, so I suspect a little profit taking on it as well. Both RTN & USB have been down for several consecutive days, so maybe the stocks finally got cheap enough for investors to step in. I can't find any news that would account for the rise in those shares. Today was a fairly active trading day as I made three trades. I was able to buy more Wal Mart (WMT) at $56.50. I feel good about being able to add these shares because I had been waiting for them to come own to my price. In my second trade, I added a new name to the portfolio, Chemical & Mining Company of Chile (SQM). I'l have more about what they do in the weekly roundup. This stock has been moving higher lately and trading volumes have been increasing. This is a big momentum name, which I don't usually like to trade, but I decided to take a chance on this one. The last trade I made was to sell some Big Lots (BIG) short. This is purely on the recommendation of Fast Money's Karen Finerman. She has been right on with her short calls and I feel like she is right on this one as well. I also don't do much shorting, so this will be a little different for me as well.
News specific to my portfolio:
I was lucky again today as my portfolio was up a little while the DOW was down a little. Yesterday's two biggest winners, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) & Bucyrus International (BUCY), were today's two biggest losers. CHK lost about 3.5% to finish at $65.45 and BUCY was down 2.2% finishing at $75.99. The two biggest winners were US Bancorp (USB), which was up more than 3.5% to finish at $29.93, and Raytheon (RTN) which was up 3.28% to finish at $59.25. I suspect that Nat Gas being down a little gave folks a reason to take some profits in CHK. BUCY has been on a tear, so I suspect a little profit taking on it as well. Both RTN & USB have been down for several consecutive days, so maybe the stocks finally got cheap enough for investors to step in. I can't find any news that would account for the rise in those shares. Today was a fairly active trading day as I made three trades. I was able to buy more Wal Mart (WMT) at $56.50. I feel good about being able to add these shares because I had been waiting for them to come own to my price. In my second trade, I added a new name to the portfolio, Chemical & Mining Company of Chile (SQM). I'l have more about what they do in the weekly roundup. This stock has been moving higher lately and trading volumes have been increasing. This is a big momentum name, which I don't usually like to trade, but I decided to take a chance on this one. The last trade I made was to sell some Big Lots (BIG) short. This is purely on the recommendation of Fast Money's Karen Finerman. She has been right on with her short calls and I feel like she is right on this one as well. I also don't do much shorting, so this will be a little different for me as well.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Monday, June 23rd, 2008 Recap
The DOW spent most of the day in positive territory before a late day selloff pushed it downward to close virtually unchanged. The DOW was at 11,842 when the closing bell rang. The big news of the day was the announcement that Saudi Arabia will raise oil production by 500,000 barrels per day. However, this had no effect on crude prices as oil rose to close near an all-time high. To be honest, 500,000 barrels per day sounds like a lot but it's not very much considering the total daily worldwide consumption is about 85,000,000 barrels per day. After the bell UPS announced that second quarter earnings would not meet previous expectations as higher fuel prices and lower shipping volumes are to blame. This is not a big shock, but the market will probably sell off tomorrow morning because of this.
News specific to my portfolio:
My portfolio gained just less than 1/2 of 1% on the day which was ahead of the DOW. Three stocks stood out on the upside. Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Bucyrus International (BUCY) and US Steel (X). There was no news to account for the pop in either CHK or BUCY which were up 6% and 5.25% respectively. X was added to the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs (GS) and traded through the all-important $185 level to close at $191.02. I have mentioned on more than one occasion how important it was for the stock to close above $185. I think the stock can trade through $200 within the next week or two. I took the opportunity early in the day to sell a small portion of my shares at $188.50 on the hope that the stock would fall back closer to $185. However, the stock just kept on chugging all day. Goldman Sachs (GS) and US Bancorp (USB) were the two worst performers in the portfolio today as both were down more than 2.5%. I took the opportunity to buy some USB at $29. I was also hoping to get a chance to add to my Wal-Mart (WMT) position at or below $56. Unfortunately, the stock opened higher and I never got a chance to do that.
News specific to my portfolio:
My portfolio gained just less than 1/2 of 1% on the day which was ahead of the DOW. Three stocks stood out on the upside. Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Bucyrus International (BUCY) and US Steel (X). There was no news to account for the pop in either CHK or BUCY which were up 6% and 5.25% respectively. X was added to the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs (GS) and traded through the all-important $185 level to close at $191.02. I have mentioned on more than one occasion how important it was for the stock to close above $185. I think the stock can trade through $200 within the next week or two. I took the opportunity early in the day to sell a small portion of my shares at $188.50 on the hope that the stock would fall back closer to $185. However, the stock just kept on chugging all day. Goldman Sachs (GS) and US Bancorp (USB) were the two worst performers in the portfolio today as both were down more than 2.5%. I took the opportunity to buy some USB at $29. I was also hoping to get a chance to add to my Wal-Mart (WMT) position at or below $56. Unfortunately, the stock opened higher and I never got a chance to do that.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Sunday, June 22nd, Weekly Roundup
It was a bad week for the stock market. Luckily, my portfolio was down less than 1% while the DOW was down about 4%. I give the credit to the fact that I am currently investing in "safer" stocks, which usually don't go down as much in a poor market, and a host of stocks that are related to energy which is about the only sector outperforming at the moment. As always though, things can change in a hurry, so I have to make sure I have a plan for each stock in the portfolio, should the story change, and that I'm always looking for stocks that will do well in the current environment.
Warren Buffet Portfolio
Eaton Vance Tax Advantaged Dividend Income Fund (EVT) $23.79 - It was a tough week for this holding which usually tracks the overall market. I last bought shares at @ $22.75 and unloaded those shares at $25.25. If the stock dropped below $24 I would be interested in adding to my position.
General Electric (GE) $27.38 - The stock finished down almost two dollars on the week. GE is a huge conglomerate which is in many businesses, but they have a great track record of growing earnings. The company missed expectations in the first quarter of this year, but I expect them to bounce back. I have been using the weakness of late to add to my position. I would like to buy more at $27.
Coca Cola (KO) $53.66 - The stock suffered more this week as a couple of its international bottlers announced that case volume growth would be lower than previously expected. I like this stock for the long term. The company is constantly looking for ways to grow and I think international growth will see the company through the current environment. I would like to add to my position closer to $50.
McDonald's (MCD) $57.40 - The stock was down on the week as it follows its usual pattern of selling off after announcing good same store sales early in the month. If the stock slips much more, it could be a good time to add to my position.
Altria (MO) $20.78 - The stock lost twelve cents off of its closing price from the previous week. This is one of the reasons you want to own Altria. In a week where the DOW was down almost 4%, Altria was down less than 1%. The great dividend and shareholder friendly management are other good reasons to own it. If the stock drops to $20, I would definitely buy more shares.
US Bancorp (USB) $29.67 - The stock held up better than most regional banks this week. I continue to own this stock, which is in the worst performing sector for 2008, because they avoided many of the pitfalls that hurt their competitors and I expect them to come out stronger than ever. I will add to my position if the stock drops to $29.
Jim Cramer Portfolio
Apple (AAPL) $175.27 - I started a position in the stock again this week as it started to look attractive after the recent selloff. The 3g iphone should drive good earnings growth this year and I have confidence in management to keep coming up with gadgets that will sell. If the stock drops to the low 170's, I will add to my position.
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) $103.02 - Tough week for the company as they announced second quarter earnings would fall short of previous expectations because of flooding in the Midwest and higher fuel costs. At first, I was uncertain on what to do with the stock but I have decided to keep it for now. The flood waters will eventually recede and the company is the best positioned of all the railroads to take advantage of higher coal and corn prices. If the stock drops below $100, I would consider adding to my position.
Bucyrus International (BUCY) $73.83 - I sold some covered calls against my position on Monday. On Friday, I was able to buy those calls back for a profit. This stock has been a great performer this year and I expect it to go higher. I would like to add to my position if the stock gets closer to $70.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $63.96 - It was a great week for the stock as it made a new 52 week high. As long as Natural Gas prices stay high, the company will continue to perform well as they continue to increase production each year. I'm hoping to get a rally to $70 this week where I would seel some shares.
Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) $117.03 - I sold some calls against my position on Monday and they expired worthless on Friday, so I got to keep all the money I brought in. The company is well positioned to benefit from all of the building going on in places like China. If the stock drops closer to $110, I would have to add to my position.
Google (GOOG) $546.43 - It was a tough week for the stock. There wasn't much news, so it appears it was just a victim of the broader market selloff. I continue to like the stock but I'm not looking to add to my position at the current level.
Goldman Sachs (GS) $183.77 - The stock was actually up this week even though most other financial stocks were down big. On Tuesday the company announced great earnings which easily exceeded expectations. I took the opportunity to sell some shares which I had boughht a few months ago at a lower price. Since the stock usually sells off with other financials, I may get a chance to add to my position. I would like to do so if the stock drops to $165.
Quanta Services (PWR) $33.86 - The stock was up slightly this week. I like the company as they are the leading maker of windmills. Wind is the cheapest of all alternative energies and I expect it will have the best chance of catching on. I like this stock for the long term but I'm not looking to add to my position at these levels.
Raytheon (RTN) $57.89 - The stock held up relatively well this week. Raytheon is very cheap with a current P/E ratio below 10. Defense stocks should hold up better in a down market, but this one has been down in previous weeks as it looks like Barack Obama will be the next President. Most investors think he will not want to spend as much on defense. The elections are a long way away and a lot can change between now and then. I like having this stock in the portfolio because it offers some diversity to my energy holdings. However, I could see cutting my losses if a better opportunity comes along.
Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) $44.18 - The stock was up about 4% this week as the company got some good news about one of the drugs they're developing. I added this stock just over a week ago and had been looking to buy it for several months. I like the stock for the long term because our population is getting older and TEVA is one of the largest generic drug makers. If this stock were to drop below my cost basis of $42.60 I would add to my position.
US Oil Fund (USO) $109.14 - The stock was virtually unchanged on the week. I had sold some JUN 102 calls against my shares so on Friday I decided to buy those calls back at a loss. I also added more shares to my position. I will probably sell more calls against some of my position tomorrow and let the rest run because it seems like oil always finds a reason to go higher.
Wal Mart (WMT) $56.26 - The stock lost about $3 on the week and is starting to look attractive. This is about the only retail stock that has performed well this year as consumers have been trading down to the discounter. I see no reason to believe that trend won't continue and I'm actually hoping for a lower open tomorrow so I can add to my position. I will be extremely happy to add to my position below $56.
US Steel (X) $182.79 - The stock gained about $10 on the week but failed to close above the $185 level after trading above $186 on Friday. I think this is an important level technically for the stock and if it can manage a close above $185 it could go significantly higher.
Warren Buffet Portfolio
Eaton Vance Tax Advantaged Dividend Income Fund (EVT) $23.79 - It was a tough week for this holding which usually tracks the overall market. I last bought shares at @ $22.75 and unloaded those shares at $25.25. If the stock dropped below $24 I would be interested in adding to my position.
General Electric (GE) $27.38 - The stock finished down almost two dollars on the week. GE is a huge conglomerate which is in many businesses, but they have a great track record of growing earnings. The company missed expectations in the first quarter of this year, but I expect them to bounce back. I have been using the weakness of late to add to my position. I would like to buy more at $27.
Coca Cola (KO) $53.66 - The stock suffered more this week as a couple of its international bottlers announced that case volume growth would be lower than previously expected. I like this stock for the long term. The company is constantly looking for ways to grow and I think international growth will see the company through the current environment. I would like to add to my position closer to $50.
McDonald's (MCD) $57.40 - The stock was down on the week as it follows its usual pattern of selling off after announcing good same store sales early in the month. If the stock slips much more, it could be a good time to add to my position.
Altria (MO) $20.78 - The stock lost twelve cents off of its closing price from the previous week. This is one of the reasons you want to own Altria. In a week where the DOW was down almost 4%, Altria was down less than 1%. The great dividend and shareholder friendly management are other good reasons to own it. If the stock drops to $20, I would definitely buy more shares.
US Bancorp (USB) $29.67 - The stock held up better than most regional banks this week. I continue to own this stock, which is in the worst performing sector for 2008, because they avoided many of the pitfalls that hurt their competitors and I expect them to come out stronger than ever. I will add to my position if the stock drops to $29.
Jim Cramer Portfolio
Apple (AAPL) $175.27 - I started a position in the stock again this week as it started to look attractive after the recent selloff. The 3g iphone should drive good earnings growth this year and I have confidence in management to keep coming up with gadgets that will sell. If the stock drops to the low 170's, I will add to my position.
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) $103.02 - Tough week for the company as they announced second quarter earnings would fall short of previous expectations because of flooding in the Midwest and higher fuel costs. At first, I was uncertain on what to do with the stock but I have decided to keep it for now. The flood waters will eventually recede and the company is the best positioned of all the railroads to take advantage of higher coal and corn prices. If the stock drops below $100, I would consider adding to my position.
Bucyrus International (BUCY) $73.83 - I sold some covered calls against my position on Monday. On Friday, I was able to buy those calls back for a profit. This stock has been a great performer this year and I expect it to go higher. I would like to add to my position if the stock gets closer to $70.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $63.96 - It was a great week for the stock as it made a new 52 week high. As long as Natural Gas prices stay high, the company will continue to perform well as they continue to increase production each year. I'm hoping to get a rally to $70 this week where I would seel some shares.
Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) $117.03 - I sold some calls against my position on Monday and they expired worthless on Friday, so I got to keep all the money I brought in. The company is well positioned to benefit from all of the building going on in places like China. If the stock drops closer to $110, I would have to add to my position.
Google (GOOG) $546.43 - It was a tough week for the stock. There wasn't much news, so it appears it was just a victim of the broader market selloff. I continue to like the stock but I'm not looking to add to my position at the current level.
Goldman Sachs (GS) $183.77 - The stock was actually up this week even though most other financial stocks were down big. On Tuesday the company announced great earnings which easily exceeded expectations. I took the opportunity to sell some shares which I had boughht a few months ago at a lower price. Since the stock usually sells off with other financials, I may get a chance to add to my position. I would like to do so if the stock drops to $165.
Quanta Services (PWR) $33.86 - The stock was up slightly this week. I like the company as they are the leading maker of windmills. Wind is the cheapest of all alternative energies and I expect it will have the best chance of catching on. I like this stock for the long term but I'm not looking to add to my position at these levels.
Raytheon (RTN) $57.89 - The stock held up relatively well this week. Raytheon is very cheap with a current P/E ratio below 10. Defense stocks should hold up better in a down market, but this one has been down in previous weeks as it looks like Barack Obama will be the next President. Most investors think he will not want to spend as much on defense. The elections are a long way away and a lot can change between now and then. I like having this stock in the portfolio because it offers some diversity to my energy holdings. However, I could see cutting my losses if a better opportunity comes along.
Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) $44.18 - The stock was up about 4% this week as the company got some good news about one of the drugs they're developing. I added this stock just over a week ago and had been looking to buy it for several months. I like the stock for the long term because our population is getting older and TEVA is one of the largest generic drug makers. If this stock were to drop below my cost basis of $42.60 I would add to my position.
US Oil Fund (USO) $109.14 - The stock was virtually unchanged on the week. I had sold some JUN 102 calls against my shares so on Friday I decided to buy those calls back at a loss. I also added more shares to my position. I will probably sell more calls against some of my position tomorrow and let the rest run because it seems like oil always finds a reason to go higher.
Wal Mart (WMT) $56.26 - The stock lost about $3 on the week and is starting to look attractive. This is about the only retail stock that has performed well this year as consumers have been trading down to the discounter. I see no reason to believe that trend won't continue and I'm actually hoping for a lower open tomorrow so I can add to my position. I will be extremely happy to add to my position below $56.
US Steel (X) $182.79 - The stock gained about $10 on the week but failed to close above the $185 level after trading above $186 on Friday. I think this is an important level technically for the stock and if it can manage a close above $185 it could go significantly higher.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Wednesday, June 18th, 2008 Recap
It was another tough day in the market as oil was up again and worries about the regional banks spooked investors. The DOW finished down 131 point to close at 12,029. We're getting closer to the market lows set earlier this year when the DOW twice dropped to around 11,700. I don't know if we'll get there again or if we'll go even lower, but days like today are not very encouraging. In yesterday's recap I talked about the after hours announcement by YRC that second quarter earnings would be higher than previously expected. I was skeptical of this announcement as it looked like the upside would come from consolidating benefits plans rather than stronger business. The stock managed to tack on 5% today, but one analyst was not impressed by the announcement. I guess it remains to be seen if the earnings picture really does improve from here. I have to believe the rise in oil prices is causing the consumer to cut back.
News specific to my portfolio:
My portfolio again outperformed the DOW as I was only down slightly. The biggest winner was Chesapeake Energy (CHK) which made a new 52 week high at $66.08 before settling at $65.94. There was no specific news on the stock that I can find, but natural gas was up, so I'm sure that had something to do with the rise. This stock has been on a tear, but it has to pull back at some point. If this stock continues to $70 in the short term, I will have to sell some of my position. US Steel (X) was also up today as it charged forward almost 3%. Again, I could find no specific news that would account for this. General Electric was the biggest loser in the portfolio today dropping 2.25% closing at $28.21. I'm not too concerned as I am in this one for the long term. In fact, I'm glad to be getting such a good buying opportunity and have a limit order in to buy more if the stock drops to $27.50. US Bank was also a loser today dropping 2.15% to close at $30.01. My limit order to buy at $30 was filled today, so I'm happy with this development. This is another great company that has been hurt by the bad news surrounding its peers. USB steered clear of the sub-prime mortgage mess, but they are still being sold off with other financial stocks. I have a limit order in to buy more of this stock if the shares drop to $29. I made one other move in the portfolio today selling some shares of Goldman Sachs (GS) at $185.25. I made just a small amount on these shares that I bought a couple of months ago, but I am happy to take profits in the name right now. After the spectacular earnings announcement yesterday, I expected better performance from the stock. However, we're seeing the same sort of stuff we've seen with GS stock over the last several months. They announce good things, their competitors announce bad things and everyone focuses on the bad stuff coming out of the other companies. In the past this has created several buying opportunities. I'm hoping the stock will drop to about $165, where I will be more than happy to buy these shares back. One last note... after the market closed today, Burllington Northern (BNI) announced that their second quarter earnings would not meet estimates because of higher fuel prices and because they have lost some business due to flooding in the Midwest. I'm a little torn by this announcement because I really like the stock. I believe they will continue to benefit from higher fuel prices because they will take business away from the truckers. However, we know they won't meet their estimates for this quarter and the stock is sure to take a hit. I might be better off selling my shares and waiting for a better entry point once we get through this rough spot. At this point, I'm not sure what to do with the stock.
News specific to my portfolio:
My portfolio again outperformed the DOW as I was only down slightly. The biggest winner was Chesapeake Energy (CHK) which made a new 52 week high at $66.08 before settling at $65.94. There was no specific news on the stock that I can find, but natural gas was up, so I'm sure that had something to do with the rise. This stock has been on a tear, but it has to pull back at some point. If this stock continues to $70 in the short term, I will have to sell some of my position. US Steel (X) was also up today as it charged forward almost 3%. Again, I could find no specific news that would account for this. General Electric was the biggest loser in the portfolio today dropping 2.25% closing at $28.21. I'm not too concerned as I am in this one for the long term. In fact, I'm glad to be getting such a good buying opportunity and have a limit order in to buy more if the stock drops to $27.50. US Bank was also a loser today dropping 2.15% to close at $30.01. My limit order to buy at $30 was filled today, so I'm happy with this development. This is another great company that has been hurt by the bad news surrounding its peers. USB steered clear of the sub-prime mortgage mess, but they are still being sold off with other financial stocks. I have a limit order in to buy more of this stock if the shares drop to $29. I made one other move in the portfolio today selling some shares of Goldman Sachs (GS) at $185.25. I made just a small amount on these shares that I bought a couple of months ago, but I am happy to take profits in the name right now. After the spectacular earnings announcement yesterday, I expected better performance from the stock. However, we're seeing the same sort of stuff we've seen with GS stock over the last several months. They announce good things, their competitors announce bad things and everyone focuses on the bad stuff coming out of the other companies. In the past this has created several buying opportunities. I'm hoping the stock will drop to about $165, where I will be more than happy to buy these shares back. One last note... after the market closed today, Burllington Northern (BNI) announced that their second quarter earnings would not meet estimates because of higher fuel prices and because they have lost some business due to flooding in the Midwest. I'm a little torn by this announcement because I really like the stock. I believe they will continue to benefit from higher fuel prices because they will take business away from the truckers. However, we know they won't meet their estimates for this quarter and the stock is sure to take a hit. I might be better off selling my shares and waiting for a better entry point once we get through this rough spot. At this point, I'm not sure what to do with the stock.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Tuesday, June 17th, 2008 Recap
The market started off pretty well, but by late morning all the gains were gone and we continued to drift lower until the close. The DOW finished off 108 points at 12,160. There were two big new items that drove the action and oddly enough both were centered around one of my holdings, Goldman Sachs (GS). Before the bell, GS announced second quarter earnings of $4.58 vs the consensus estimate of $3.42. It was another huge quarter for GS which seems to always blow away estimates. The GS earnings announcement provided strength for the market early in the day. However, it was a report by GS released later in the day that drove the market down. The report stated that because of continued losses, banks may have to write down an additional $65 billion. This took the market down and GS's stock price with it. After the bell there was one more news item of note as Yellow-Roadway (YRC) "raised" their earnings forecast for the current quarter. The stock was pushed 9% higher in after-hours trading. However, I have to challenge that somewhat because the raised guidance is not coming from stronger business, but rather because the company has recently consolidated several benefits plans. It will be interesting to see how the stock and the rest of the transportation sector trades tomorrow. I can see why people got excited about the headline on this story, but when investors dig into it a little, I think they'll find a reason to be disappointed.
News specific to my portfolio:
There wasn't much news on specific stocks in the portfolio other than GS. Overall, my portfolio advanced today despite the lower overall market. CHK was the biggest winner as it was up almost 5% to close at $64. This stock just continues to move higher as Natural Gas is enjoying a great rally without much publicity. I sold some of my position at $59 a few weeks ago and I wish I had held onto it a little longer. However, I probably need to think about selling a little more if the stock moves toward $70. BNI & USB were the biggest losers in the portfolio today. I'm not sure what caused BNI to drop almost 3% to $102.21, but it's starting to reach a level where I want to add more. If it moves closer to $100, I will have to pull the trigger because the stock looks great on a fundamental and technical basis. USB was hurt by the GS report, but I don't mind too much as I want to add to my position at $30. The stock closed at $30.67 and if we get a downward open tomorrow morning, my limit order may get filled. Lastly, I added a position in AAPL today at $180. The stock pulled back hard last week to the mid 160's and I wish I had bought some of it a few days earlier. I still think I got a good price, it just could have been a little better.
News specific to my portfolio:
There wasn't much news on specific stocks in the portfolio other than GS. Overall, my portfolio advanced today despite the lower overall market. CHK was the biggest winner as it was up almost 5% to close at $64. This stock just continues to move higher as Natural Gas is enjoying a great rally without much publicity. I sold some of my position at $59 a few weeks ago and I wish I had held onto it a little longer. However, I probably need to think about selling a little more if the stock moves toward $70. BNI & USB were the biggest losers in the portfolio today. I'm not sure what caused BNI to drop almost 3% to $102.21, but it's starting to reach a level where I want to add more. If it moves closer to $100, I will have to pull the trigger because the stock looks great on a fundamental and technical basis. USB was hurt by the GS report, but I don't mind too much as I want to add to my position at $30. The stock closed at $30.67 and if we get a downward open tomorrow morning, my limit order may get filled. Lastly, I added a position in AAPL today at $180. The stock pulled back hard last week to the mid 160's and I wish I had bought some of it a few days earlier. I still think I got a good price, it just could have been a little better.
Monday, June 16, 2008
Monday, June 16th, 2008 Recap
The DOW finished down 38 points at 12,269. Oil was the big story of the day as it hit a new all-time high above $139 per barrel before finishing down on the day below $134 per barrel.
News on Specific holdings:
Three holding stood out today on the upside. BUCY was up almost 3% today as the coal sector continued higher. I actually sold some covered calls against my position in this stock because it has has such an incredible run. I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock pull back in the near term even though I still believe in the long term story. CHK was also a winner today, up 3% on the back of natural gas which was up almost the same. We also got some good news on this holding as we found out the CEO, Aubrey McClendon, bought another 200,000 shares on Friday. This guy has been a consistent buyer this year and even though it was one of his smaller purchases, it shows he remains very bullish on the company. TEVA was the biggest mover of the day up over 5% on an upgrade after positive trial results for a drug the company is developing.
On the downside, it was another tough day for KO. One of the company's bottlers in Greece announced earnings that didn't meet expectations. I still love this stock for the long term, but as I mentioned in my weekly roundup, I think it may be headed for $50 so I want to wait before adding to my position.
Tomorrow GS will announce earnings and I'm expecting the company to beat estimates of $3.42 per share and the whisper number of $3.34 per share. If the stock opens up tomorrow morning, I will probably sell some of my position into the rally.
News on Specific holdings:
Three holding stood out today on the upside. BUCY was up almost 3% today as the coal sector continued higher. I actually sold some covered calls against my position in this stock because it has has such an incredible run. I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock pull back in the near term even though I still believe in the long term story. CHK was also a winner today, up 3% on the back of natural gas which was up almost the same. We also got some good news on this holding as we found out the CEO, Aubrey McClendon, bought another 200,000 shares on Friday. This guy has been a consistent buyer this year and even though it was one of his smaller purchases, it shows he remains very bullish on the company. TEVA was the biggest mover of the day up over 5% on an upgrade after positive trial results for a drug the company is developing.
On the downside, it was another tough day for KO. One of the company's bottlers in Greece announced earnings that didn't meet expectations. I still love this stock for the long term, but as I mentioned in my weekly roundup, I think it may be headed for $50 so I want to wait before adding to my position.
Tomorrow GS will announce earnings and I'm expecting the company to beat estimates of $3.42 per share and the whisper number of $3.34 per share. If the stock opens up tomorrow morning, I will probably sell some of my position into the rally.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Sunday June 15th, 2008 Weekly Roundup
This was a pretty volatile week in the market, but we managed to end at about the same place we started on the major averages. On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday it seemed like the market would never have another up day, but the sun came out on Thursday and Friday to give us a little relief. The DOW finished Friday at 12,307.35. It was a pretty active week in my portfolio as I eliminated four names and added two. I sold out of Philip Morris International (PM), BE Aerospace (BEAV), Microsoft (MSFT) and Foster Wheeler (FWLT). On PM, I decided to sell out of the position and buy more Altriawhen it drifted below $21. These two companies used to be one until they split earlier this year, so their business is the same. However, PM is a totally international company now unlike MO which is only in the US. With all the talk of a stronger dollar early in the week, I decided it was time to trade out of PM. I'm not sure how much stronger the dollar will get, but as it strengthens, it will be bad news for PM. With BEAV, I was lucky enough to get a pop on Monday to get out of some of my position at $30. I sold the rest on Thursday. I just came to the realization that this stock is probably going lower in the short term and whether the street is right or not, the sentiment is that all of their customer are going out of business. I don't believe that's the case, but I will sit on the sidelines for now. We finally got a resolution in the MSFT/YHOO deal and MSFT popped nicely on Friday because of it. I decided to get out of the stock when the stock went up. I was holding a very small position in FWLT and was hoping to seel it at $80, but the stock weakened on a downgrade early in the week and I decided to take my gains while I still had them. The first of my two new positions is Wal Mart (WMT). I believe the company will continue to benefit from the weakening economic situation as consumers trade down from other retailers. This is one of the safest stocks you could ever invest in and it's not bad as far as a dividend growth play either. On Friday I added a name that I been looking at for a long time in Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA). The company is one of the leading generic drug makers and has had consistent earnings growth for several years. Thestock price has been drifting lower so far this year until I decided it was time to buy at $42.60.
Weekly Roundup
The Dividend Growth Stocks will now be named "The Warren Buffet Stocks" because I view these as long term holdings. These are great companies with which I build the foundation of my portfolio.
Eaton Vance Tax Advantaged Dividend Income Fund (EVT) $24.45 - The fund was little changed for the week. It usually tracks pretty closely with the overall market. It would have to drop below $23 before I considered adding to my position.
General Electric (GE) $29.15 - Last week I said I wanted to add to my position at $29.75. That's exactly wat I di as the stock dropped to my price on Thursday. I tried to add even more on Friday as the stock was down early in the day. I put in a limit order to buy at $28.50, but the stock never made it that low. GE is really cheap at these levels and there has been heavy insider buying lately. Hopefull, the stock will drop to $28.50 in the next day or two. I want to add more shares of this tock, but I may have to pay more that the $28.50 to get them now.
Coca Cola (KO) $55.42 - The stock was up big on Tuesday on an upgrade from an analyst who said earnings would be great this quarter on the back of a weak dollar. On Friday the stock sold off as the largest bottler of Coke products in Europe said that unit case volume growth would come in at 6% this year instead of the previously forecast 7%. The upgrade was a surprise to me, even though I agree with the analyst. I think investors started to focus on how things look going forward as we moved on in the week and that's why it sold off from the $58+ close on Tuesday. If the dollar makes a large move upward against other currencies, KO will get hit. However, I love this stock for the long term and would love to add to my position in the low 50's.
McDonald's (MCD) $59.95 - The stock rallied this week on string same store sales for the month of May year over year. The company is expanding overseas while keeping a strong foothold here in the US. They are probably also benefiting from consumers trading down from the casual dining space as well. I'm not looking to add to my position at these levels.
Altria (MO) $20.90 - I added to my position this week at $21.05 one day before it went ex-dividend, so in effect I was buying the shares at $20.75. The stock has been under pressure lately, but I view this as a great buying opportunity as the stock now yields 5.5%. The company is buying back stock and will raise the dividend within the year. I expect I'll look back on this purchase in about five years and be really pleased.
US Bancorp (USB) $30.83 - Early in the week the financials sold off and took down USB with it. I think this is a case of throwing out the baby with the bathwater. The stock is looking really attractive at these levels and I want to add to my position at $30. I may go ahead and pull the trigger as buying at the current price would be a great deal too.
From now on the "Growth Stocks" portfolio will be known as the "Jim Cramer" portfolio. These are stocks I believe are benefiting from current trends and will go higher over the next twelve to eighteen months.
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) $104.68 - Shipping goods by rail is both less expensive and more environmentally friendly. Higher commodities prices are also helping the company push through price increases. I added to my position twice this week and I'm happy to own the stock at these levels. I would probably add more shares if the stock dropped below $100.
Bucyrus International (BUCY) $75.14 - The coal stocks have been on fire and I believe this name will go higher over time. In the short term it may pull back because it's had a great run.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $59.26 - Natural gas is another area that's been doing well and this company's CEO has been adding millions of shares this year. You have to love that situation. I would add to my position if the stock dropped into the low 50's.
Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) $123.30 - It was a good week for the stock as it approached its 52 week high. Recent earthquakes in China shold lend support to the price of copper which is this company's main line of business.
Google (GOOG) %571.51 - Stock was little changed this week. The only news is that the company may have an agreement with YHOO since the Microsoft deal is now off the table. I look forward to the next quarterly earnings report. Hopefull the company can blow away the numbers as they did last quarter.
Goldman Sachs (GS) $178.29 - It was a pretty wild week as the stock reversed course and finished about nine points higher than last week. The company is set to announce earnings this week and I expect them to beat the number as they usually do. Hopefully, we'll get a good enough pop on the stock to unload some shares closer to $200.
Quanta Services (PWR) $33.34 - It was fairly quiet week for the stock, but it managed to move higher. I think the earnings estimates for this company are too low as our electricity grid is in bad need of repair and some state governments have begun to initiate quotas on renewable energy. The company stands to benefit from both of these situations. I'm up on this stock, but would add to my position on a pullback.
Raytheon (RTN) $58.04 - This stock has been getting hammered lately. I think the culprit has been speculation that Barrack Obama will be the next President. While that would probably mean a smaller defense budget, I don't think it nearly means the end of the company. A couple of the reasons I bought the stock were its cheap valuation and the fact that governments around the world are spending money on defense. This stock may be headed lower in the short term, but I want to wait until the stock drops to $55 before adding to my position.
Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) $42.50 - This is a new addition to the portfolio. I have liked this stock for a long time, but just never got the right opportunity to add it to the portfolio. Teva is one of the world's leading makers of generic drugs. The company stands to benefit from our aging population, which will drive demand for drugs in general, and the need to lower medical costs which leads to more generic drug buying. I bought the stock this week at $42.60 and I would love to add to my position if it went lower.
US Oil Fund (USO) $109.20 - I have sold calls against my position which expire this Friday. We'll see where the stock finishes on Friday and whether I have to close out my position or get to sell more calls for July.
Wal Mart (WMT) $59.18 - This company is benefitting from consumers trading down. I like it as a play on our weakening economy. I would like to add to my position below $58.
US Steel (X) $174.61 - I love the fundamental story in this stock. However, it hasn't been acting very well on a technical basis. It will be interesting to see what it does this week after a large move upward on Friday. Hopefully, it will move above $185 in the near term which is a level I have identified as resistance .
Weekly Roundup
The Dividend Growth Stocks will now be named "The Warren Buffet Stocks" because I view these as long term holdings. These are great companies with which I build the foundation of my portfolio.
Eaton Vance Tax Advantaged Dividend Income Fund (EVT) $24.45 - The fund was little changed for the week. It usually tracks pretty closely with the overall market. It would have to drop below $23 before I considered adding to my position.
General Electric (GE) $29.15 - Last week I said I wanted to add to my position at $29.75. That's exactly wat I di as the stock dropped to my price on Thursday. I tried to add even more on Friday as the stock was down early in the day. I put in a limit order to buy at $28.50, but the stock never made it that low. GE is really cheap at these levels and there has been heavy insider buying lately. Hopefull, the stock will drop to $28.50 in the next day or two. I want to add more shares of this tock, but I may have to pay more that the $28.50 to get them now.
Coca Cola (KO) $55.42 - The stock was up big on Tuesday on an upgrade from an analyst who said earnings would be great this quarter on the back of a weak dollar. On Friday the stock sold off as the largest bottler of Coke products in Europe said that unit case volume growth would come in at 6% this year instead of the previously forecast 7%. The upgrade was a surprise to me, even though I agree with the analyst. I think investors started to focus on how things look going forward as we moved on in the week and that's why it sold off from the $58+ close on Tuesday. If the dollar makes a large move upward against other currencies, KO will get hit. However, I love this stock for the long term and would love to add to my position in the low 50's.
McDonald's (MCD) $59.95 - The stock rallied this week on string same store sales for the month of May year over year. The company is expanding overseas while keeping a strong foothold here in the US. They are probably also benefiting from consumers trading down from the casual dining space as well. I'm not looking to add to my position at these levels.
Altria (MO) $20.90 - I added to my position this week at $21.05 one day before it went ex-dividend, so in effect I was buying the shares at $20.75. The stock has been under pressure lately, but I view this as a great buying opportunity as the stock now yields 5.5%. The company is buying back stock and will raise the dividend within the year. I expect I'll look back on this purchase in about five years and be really pleased.
US Bancorp (USB) $30.83 - Early in the week the financials sold off and took down USB with it. I think this is a case of throwing out the baby with the bathwater. The stock is looking really attractive at these levels and I want to add to my position at $30. I may go ahead and pull the trigger as buying at the current price would be a great deal too.
From now on the "Growth Stocks" portfolio will be known as the "Jim Cramer" portfolio. These are stocks I believe are benefiting from current trends and will go higher over the next twelve to eighteen months.
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) $104.68 - Shipping goods by rail is both less expensive and more environmentally friendly. Higher commodities prices are also helping the company push through price increases. I added to my position twice this week and I'm happy to own the stock at these levels. I would probably add more shares if the stock dropped below $100.
Bucyrus International (BUCY) $75.14 - The coal stocks have been on fire and I believe this name will go higher over time. In the short term it may pull back because it's had a great run.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $59.26 - Natural gas is another area that's been doing well and this company's CEO has been adding millions of shares this year. You have to love that situation. I would add to my position if the stock dropped into the low 50's.
Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) $123.30 - It was a good week for the stock as it approached its 52 week high. Recent earthquakes in China shold lend support to the price of copper which is this company's main line of business.
Google (GOOG) %571.51 - Stock was little changed this week. The only news is that the company may have an agreement with YHOO since the Microsoft deal is now off the table. I look forward to the next quarterly earnings report. Hopefull the company can blow away the numbers as they did last quarter.
Goldman Sachs (GS) $178.29 - It was a pretty wild week as the stock reversed course and finished about nine points higher than last week. The company is set to announce earnings this week and I expect them to beat the number as they usually do. Hopefully, we'll get a good enough pop on the stock to unload some shares closer to $200.
Quanta Services (PWR) $33.34 - It was fairly quiet week for the stock, but it managed to move higher. I think the earnings estimates for this company are too low as our electricity grid is in bad need of repair and some state governments have begun to initiate quotas on renewable energy. The company stands to benefit from both of these situations. I'm up on this stock, but would add to my position on a pullback.
Raytheon (RTN) $58.04 - This stock has been getting hammered lately. I think the culprit has been speculation that Barrack Obama will be the next President. While that would probably mean a smaller defense budget, I don't think it nearly means the end of the company. A couple of the reasons I bought the stock were its cheap valuation and the fact that governments around the world are spending money on defense. This stock may be headed lower in the short term, but I want to wait until the stock drops to $55 before adding to my position.
Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) $42.50 - This is a new addition to the portfolio. I have liked this stock for a long time, but just never got the right opportunity to add it to the portfolio. Teva is one of the world's leading makers of generic drugs. The company stands to benefit from our aging population, which will drive demand for drugs in general, and the need to lower medical costs which leads to more generic drug buying. I bought the stock this week at $42.60 and I would love to add to my position if it went lower.
US Oil Fund (USO) $109.20 - I have sold calls against my position which expire this Friday. We'll see where the stock finishes on Friday and whether I have to close out my position or get to sell more calls for July.
Wal Mart (WMT) $59.18 - This company is benefitting from consumers trading down. I like it as a play on our weakening economy. I would like to add to my position below $58.
US Steel (X) $174.61 - I love the fundamental story in this stock. However, it hasn't been acting very well on a technical basis. It will be interesting to see what it does this week after a large move upward on Friday. Hopefully, it will move above $185 in the near term which is a level I have identified as resistance .
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Wednesday June11th, 2008 Recap
It was another tough day in the market as oil climbed back above $135 per barrel. The culprit today was news of a drop in oil inventories. I would really like to know who all these people are that are buying more gas at these prices. Anyway, the DOW finished down 205 points and we are now only about 300 points above the March lows of around 11,700. The market is very worried that $4 per gallon gas is going to sink our economy. I am pleased to say that my own portfolio performed better than the major averages today, but I am still unhappy whenever I lose money. On days like today, I like to review every stock in the portfolio and make sure I know why I own the stock and whether or not the story has changed. So, in today's review, I have found a couple of names that I'm thinking I may need to sell. The first is BE Aerospace (BEAV). Let me say that I have totally messed up when it comes to this stock. The short story is that I made money with this stock last year, but this year has been a different story. A couple of weeks ago when the stock started dropping, I wondered if I should buy some puts or buy more stock. Technically the stock did not act well and I ignored the fact that the airlines still don't have pricing power even though some have already gone out of business. This stock may rebound, but I think it's not going to go too much higher until the airlines gt pricing power again. The second stock is Microsoft (MSFT). This is another one that I just misplayed. It started out as a trade on the potential buyout of Yahoo, when I actually bought Yahoo stock. I later traded out of that to buy MSFT because I felt the risk/reward scenario was much better for MSFT. I don't typically make such trades and I should have stayed away from this one.
Specific portfolio news:
Several of my stocks were down significantly today. Burlington Northern was the most notable as it was down about 7%. A UBS Analyst downgraded the entire railroad sector which hit all of the rail stocks. I have to disagree with this analyst on the call. About 50% of what BNI hauls is corn and coal and the prices for those two commodities have been strong and only look to get stronger. Also, I believe the high fuel costs will force more companies to look at the railroads as a way to ship their products because it's much cheaper than shipping by truck.
I made one move today as I sold out of my small Foster Wheeler (FWLT) position to buy more BNI.
Specific portfolio news:
Several of my stocks were down significantly today. Burlington Northern was the most notable as it was down about 7%. A UBS Analyst downgraded the entire railroad sector which hit all of the rail stocks. I have to disagree with this analyst on the call. About 50% of what BNI hauls is corn and coal and the prices for those two commodities have been strong and only look to get stronger. Also, I believe the high fuel costs will force more companies to look at the railroads as a way to ship their products because it's much cheaper than shipping by truck.
I made one move today as I sold out of my small Foster Wheeler (FWLT) position to buy more BNI.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
June 10th, 2008 Recap
Today was a wild day in the market even though the major indexes didn't move much. The big news of the day was Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech to the Boston Fed. Bernanke claimed that even though the unemployment rate rose to 5.5% in May from 5% the previous month, "the risk of a substantial downturn (in the economy) has lessened". He noted that "rising energy prices have added to the upside risk for inflation" but maintained that "the seepage of rising raw material costs to other prices has been limited to this point." I have to wonder what this man is smoking if he really believes this. Our economy is definitely getting weaker and inflation is already a problem. The dollar is near all-time lows against many currencies and oil is not far off of its all-time high. I believe Bernanke's speech was an attempt to stop both of those trends. For today, it worked as the dollar strengthened and oil weakened. The question I have to ask of myself is whether I think these trends will continue. The answer is, only in the short-term. We've seen sharp corrections in commodities stocks before, only to see them come roaring back a few days later. I believe that's what we'll see again this time. However, I have to always be mindful of the fact that I could be wrong and I must have a strategy in mind for each of the stocks in my portfolio. As I have said before, I would rather take a gain in a stock when the outlook becomes uncertain as opposed to watching all of my gains melt away.
News on Specific holdings:
Coca-Cola (KO) $58.01 was the biggest gainer in the portfolio today as it was upgraded because, of all things, the weak dollar.
BE Aerospace (BEAV) $27.96 was easily the worst performer in the group today as it was down over 6%. I don't see any news to cause this decline so I'll just chalk it up to a little profit taking after an 11% rise yesterday.
US Steel (X) $176.41 was also down a lot on the day with a 4% decline. I don't see any news on it either, so I am guessing Bernanke's speech gave people an excuse to sell since this stock has been on a tear over the last six months. The only thing that concerns me is that the stock has tried to break through the $185 level twice now and it has failed to do so. It looks like it has good support in the lower 170's. If it trades down into the 160's, it may fall a little more before it finds more support.
I added to my Altria (MO) $21.13 position today at $21.05 as the stock sold off again. Luckily, the purchase was just in time to qualify for the 29 cent dividend to be paid early next month.
News on Specific holdings:
Coca-Cola (KO) $58.01 was the biggest gainer in the portfolio today as it was upgraded because, of all things, the weak dollar.
BE Aerospace (BEAV) $27.96 was easily the worst performer in the group today as it was down over 6%. I don't see any news to cause this decline so I'll just chalk it up to a little profit taking after an 11% rise yesterday.
US Steel (X) $176.41 was also down a lot on the day with a 4% decline. I don't see any news on it either, so I am guessing Bernanke's speech gave people an excuse to sell since this stock has been on a tear over the last six months. The only thing that concerns me is that the stock has tried to break through the $185 level twice now and it has failed to do so. It looks like it has good support in the lower 170's. If it trades down into the 160's, it may fall a little more before it finds more support.
I added to my Altria (MO) $21.13 position today at $21.05 as the stock sold off again. Luckily, the purchase was just in time to qualify for the 29 cent dividend to be paid early next month.
Monday, June 9, 2008
June 9th, 2008 Recap
The DOW was up about seventy points today. The big news was the disappointing earnings projection from Lehman Brothers (LEH). This took down all of the financial stocks and got a lot of analysts talking about further writedowns in the sector. This affected two of my holdings, US Bancorp (USB) $30.95 and Goldman Sachs (GS) $165.76. Both are very well run companies that have, for the most part, steered clear of the sub-prime mortgage mess. I have a limit order in to buy more USB at $30. The stock is one of my dividend growth stories and is currently yielding more than 5%. If I'm able to pick up shares at $30, those shares will be yielding %5.67. For GS, I would like to see the stock get closer to $150 before pulling the trigger on more shares. The company is slated to report earnings on Tuesday, June 17th. Last quarter the stock sold off before the earnings announcement only to bounce back over $20 in one day after the announcement. I'm hoping we get another selloff going into earnings this time.
In other portfolio news, BE Aerospace bounced back over 11% today after finishing at a new 52 week low on Friday. I was lucky enough to pick up some shares at $27.03 on Friday and I sold those shares today at $30. It seems the only news I could find on the stock is that they are buying a division of Honeywell (HON) for over $1 billion. BE management commented that the acquisition will boost earnings "significantly" after 2009. To me that just didn't seem like the type of news that should move the stock that much. I suspect there is a good chance that we'll see BEAV sell off again unless oil turns a drops like a rock which I think is unlikely. For today, I was very happy to take an 11% gain in one trading day. I still own several shares of this stock.
McDonald's (MCD) $59.31 announced good same store sales growth for the month of May. This helped shares to climb over 4%.
Commodities and rails did well today. I had several winners in these areas as BNI, CHK, FCX & X all were up more than 2%.
Lastly, I initiated a position in Wal Mart (WMT) today picking up a small amount of shares at $59.30. I had been holding Nordstrom's (JWN) for several months, but it's become apparent that consumers are trading down right now and Wal Mart stands to do better in that environment much more than JWN. I would like to add to my WMT position below $58.
In other portfolio news, BE Aerospace bounced back over 11% today after finishing at a new 52 week low on Friday. I was lucky enough to pick up some shares at $27.03 on Friday and I sold those shares today at $30. It seems the only news I could find on the stock is that they are buying a division of Honeywell (HON) for over $1 billion. BE management commented that the acquisition will boost earnings "significantly" after 2009. To me that just didn't seem like the type of news that should move the stock that much. I suspect there is a good chance that we'll see BEAV sell off again unless oil turns a drops like a rock which I think is unlikely. For today, I was very happy to take an 11% gain in one trading day. I still own several shares of this stock.
McDonald's (MCD) $59.31 announced good same store sales growth for the month of May. This helped shares to climb over 4%.
Commodities and rails did well today. I had several winners in these areas as BNI, CHK, FCX & X all were up more than 2%.
Lastly, I initiated a position in Wal Mart (WMT) today picking up a small amount of shares at $59.30. I had been holding Nordstrom's (JWN) for several months, but it's become apparent that consumers are trading down right now and Wal Mart stands to do better in that environment much more than JWN. I would like to add to my WMT position below $58.
Sunday, June 8, 2008
A New Approach
OK, I'm going to try something a little different. So far, my posts have been fewer and farther between than I would like. I also have struggled with how to make recommendations. From now on I'm going to play with a totally open hand so you can see all of my positions. Also, I will try to post something on the blog every day and then have a weekly roundup where I give my thoughts on each stock that I'm holding. Time for the first weekly roundup...
Dividend Growth Stocks - These stocks are the foundation of my portfolio. To qualify as a dividend growth stock, the company must have increased it's dividend at least once every year for the last fifteen years and the average of those increases must be 10% or greater. I also like for the stock to have a current yield of at least 2.5% when it's added to my portfolio.
Eaton Vance Tax Advantaged Dividend Income Fund (EVT) $24.91 - This is a closed end fund which I have been holding for over a year. It pays a great dividend as it now yields over 7%. The fund holds high yielding preferred and common stocks which tend to increase the dividend every year. The fund is a little bit of an exception to the rule because it hasn't been in existence for fifteen years. However, most of the stocks in the fund have been increasing their dividend every year for much longer than that. The fund tends to own a lot of financial and energy names and those two groups are headed in opposite directions at the moment. I don't know if the fund will be able to increase the dividend this year or not because of the financial exposure, but I expect that to resume in the years ahead. I'm not looking to add to my position at the current level.
General Electric (GE) $30.02 - This stock was taken to a new 52 week low this week. It's currently yielding 4% which is historically high. I think investors are punishing the stock a little too much for their financial exposure. I want to add to my position if the stock drops to $29.75
Coca-Cola (KO) $55.80 - Coca-Cola is the largest beverage company in the world and I really like what they are doing to become more of a beverage company than just a soft drink company. They have great international exposure and I expect the stock to hold up better if the market continues to decline. I would like to add to my position below $55.
McDonald's (MCD) $56.95 - In January, when the stock dropped below $50, I sold some January 2009 65 calls and then used that money to buy a few January 09 55 calls. When the stock moved up toward $60 a few weeks ago, I sold the 55's for a nice profit. I'm not looking to add any more shares at the current price.
Altria (MO) $21.53 - This stock is as defensive as you can get. The recent spinoff of the international business will allow the company to buy back stock and continue to raise the dividend. At current levels it's yielding just under 5.4%. I would like to add to my position at or below $21.
Philip Morris International (PM) $50.50 - This is the internatiopnal business that used to be under the Altria umbrella. It sports a lower dividend than MO, but it has better growth prospects. For now I'm holding the stock and awaiting the next quarter's earnings report which will be the first for this company.
U.S. Bancorp (USB) $32.07 - It's been a really tough year for financials in general, but this bank has done much better as they avoided the sub-prime mortgage crisis. The stock is currently trading right around my cost basis. I would like to add to the position at or below $30.
Growth Stocks - These are stocks which I want to own because I believe there is some underlying factor that will make the stock go higher over the next six to twelve months. However, I don't have as much patience with these stocks as I do the dividend growth stocks. I typically hold them for at least a few months and I usually add to my position if the stock goes lower after my initial purchase, but I will sell when I think the fundamentals have changed.
BE Aerospace (BEAV) $26.98 - This stock has been really tough to own lately. Investors have focused on the sad state of the domestic airlines and driven this stock much lower. I added to my position twice this week, but maybe I should have cut my losses. For now, I will continue to wait for some official word from the company to substantiate the speculation that has ruled the stock lately.
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) $110.40 - I absolutely love the rail stocks right now and this is the best positioned of the bunch to take advantage of higher commodity prices. I also like the cost savings element of the railroads. Most of us remember, when we were kids, we used to count the rail cars on a train when we got stopped on the way to Grandma's house. Seems like there was always about 100 cars on a good sized train. Anyway, in my first job we used to load 60 tons of chicken onto one rail car and we could load about twenty tons onto a truck. If you do the math it shows that a train, which takes two guys to drive across the country, can carry about 6,000 tons of stuff and a truck which takes one guy to drive across the country can carry about twenty tons. It's not hard to figure out that rail is a much cheaper means of shipping your product and with fuel prices climbing almost every day, people who need to move freight will continue to move toward the rails. This stock hardly ever pulls back, so maybe I should just pull the trigger and buy more. For now, I'm hoping to add to my position at my current cost basis of $108.50
Bucyrus International (BUCY) $75.36 - The coal stocks are another group I love, but as I have mentioned before on the blog, it's hard to figure out which ones stand to benefit the most. That's why I chose to go with the mining equipment stocks instead. I believe they will continue to benefit no matter which coal stocks do well. This stock is another that doesn't ever seem to pull back much. It recently split 2 for 1 and it's above my cost basis. I would like to add a little more to my position if it dropped closer to $70
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $58.05 - This is a natural gas stock which has done really well so far this year. The company has a consistent record of growing reserves and production which is what you want to see with oil and gas companies. The insider buying here has been incredible. Two weeks ago I was lucky to add to my position below $52 and I sold those shares on Friday just above $59. I still own a pretty sizable position in this stock, but if it drops below $55, I would like to buy back the shares that I sold on Friday.
Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) - This stock is very volatile, but it's also very cheap. Freeport is either the number 1 or number two producer of gold, copper and molybdenum in the world. Many analysts believe the stock will go much higher this year. I think if it can break above $125, then we will probably see an extended move higher. In the meantime, I would add to my position at or below $110, but I'm hoping we see the stock make that move above $125.
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) $75.76 - I have been lucky enough to sell most of my positio in this stock for a good profit over the last month. I have a limit order in now to sell the last portion at $80. The stock would probably have to move closer to $65 before I would consider adding to my position.
Google (GOOG) $567 - I really like Google because it's such a leader in it's industry. The share price tends to scare people, so I tell them to use the divide by ten rule. I'm not interested in adding to my position at current levels. The next earnings report should be coming up soon, so we'll need to be on the lookout for that.
Goldman Sachs (GS) $169.44 - This company is the absolute best-of-breed when it comes to the brokers. They have continually posted great earnings numbers compared to their peers and they managed to hedge themselves effectively against the sub-prime mortgage crisis. Unfortunately, it tends to trade in line with a lot of its peers on most days instead of trading on its own merits. I expect they will announce another good quarter, but the path of least resistence right now is lower. I'm very interested in adding to my position if the stock drops into the 150's
Microsoft (MSFT) $27.49 - Everyone knows about Microsoft so I definitely don't need to explain what they do. Recently, the stock has been brought down by the potential Yahoo merger. I expect the stock to trade in a tigh range until we get some resolution on the Yahoo deal. I believe, at current levels, the stock is undervalued. I would like to wait to see what happens with Yahoo before making any more moves in this name.
Quanta Services (PWR) $31.27 - This company is the leading maker of windmills, but is also involved in a lot of other businesses. Most of the businesses are related to energy. My position here consists of some Jan 2010 calls. I see this a long term play as earnings are forecast to grow by over 50% in 2009 after only fractional growth in 2008. If the stock moves below $30, I would likely add to my position.
Raytheon (RTN) $59.99 - Raytheon is one of the larger defense contractors. I like them because they have a really cheap valuation in an industry I expect to grow no matter who is the next President. That's because they are beginning to get a lot of contracts from foreign governments. Unfortunately, whenever the news of the day indicates that Senator Obama is likely to be our next President, all of the defense contractors tend to trade down. The stock is below my cost basis and I added to it at $60 on Friday. If it continues to move lower, I will continue to add shares.
US Oil Fund ETF (USO) $112.17 - I have owned this ETF a few times since last Fall. Since the oil market has been so volatile, it has been a good trading vehicle. I have been selling covered calls against my position every time I've bought. Twice I have been called out of the stock at a nice profit while I kept the money every other month and improved my cost basis. This month it looks like I will get called out of the shares again for a nice profit. I'm not looking to buy any more shares at this point and will wait until the third Friday in June to settle my position one way or the other.
United States Steel (X) $180.27 - Steel stocks are enjoying great pricing power at the moment and I'm really excited about this stock. I was luck enough to get a chance to add to my position this week at $175. I would still like to add more shares if the stock pulls back. Luckily, it's a little more volatile than BNI and BUCY, so I will probably get that chance. I don't want to look at selling until the stock is at least at $200 as I believe this company has several good quarters of earnings reports ahead of it.
Short term trades - These stock represent a small portion of my portfolio. These are names in which I believe I can take advantage of a short term overreaction to make money.
Currently, I have no trades in my account.
Dividend Growth Stocks - These stocks are the foundation of my portfolio. To qualify as a dividend growth stock, the company must have increased it's dividend at least once every year for the last fifteen years and the average of those increases must be 10% or greater. I also like for the stock to have a current yield of at least 2.5% when it's added to my portfolio.
Eaton Vance Tax Advantaged Dividend Income Fund (EVT) $24.91 - This is a closed end fund which I have been holding for over a year. It pays a great dividend as it now yields over 7%. The fund holds high yielding preferred and common stocks which tend to increase the dividend every year. The fund is a little bit of an exception to the rule because it hasn't been in existence for fifteen years. However, most of the stocks in the fund have been increasing their dividend every year for much longer than that. The fund tends to own a lot of financial and energy names and those two groups are headed in opposite directions at the moment. I don't know if the fund will be able to increase the dividend this year or not because of the financial exposure, but I expect that to resume in the years ahead. I'm not looking to add to my position at the current level.
General Electric (GE) $30.02 - This stock was taken to a new 52 week low this week. It's currently yielding 4% which is historically high. I think investors are punishing the stock a little too much for their financial exposure. I want to add to my position if the stock drops to $29.75
Coca-Cola (KO) $55.80 - Coca-Cola is the largest beverage company in the world and I really like what they are doing to become more of a beverage company than just a soft drink company. They have great international exposure and I expect the stock to hold up better if the market continues to decline. I would like to add to my position below $55.
McDonald's (MCD) $56.95 - In January, when the stock dropped below $50, I sold some January 2009 65 calls and then used that money to buy a few January 09 55 calls. When the stock moved up toward $60 a few weeks ago, I sold the 55's for a nice profit. I'm not looking to add any more shares at the current price.
Altria (MO) $21.53 - This stock is as defensive as you can get. The recent spinoff of the international business will allow the company to buy back stock and continue to raise the dividend. At current levels it's yielding just under 5.4%. I would like to add to my position at or below $21.
Philip Morris International (PM) $50.50 - This is the internatiopnal business that used to be under the Altria umbrella. It sports a lower dividend than MO, but it has better growth prospects. For now I'm holding the stock and awaiting the next quarter's earnings report which will be the first for this company.
U.S. Bancorp (USB) $32.07 - It's been a really tough year for financials in general, but this bank has done much better as they avoided the sub-prime mortgage crisis. The stock is currently trading right around my cost basis. I would like to add to the position at or below $30.
Growth Stocks - These are stocks which I want to own because I believe there is some underlying factor that will make the stock go higher over the next six to twelve months. However, I don't have as much patience with these stocks as I do the dividend growth stocks. I typically hold them for at least a few months and I usually add to my position if the stock goes lower after my initial purchase, but I will sell when I think the fundamentals have changed.
BE Aerospace (BEAV) $26.98 - This stock has been really tough to own lately. Investors have focused on the sad state of the domestic airlines and driven this stock much lower. I added to my position twice this week, but maybe I should have cut my losses. For now, I will continue to wait for some official word from the company to substantiate the speculation that has ruled the stock lately.
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) $110.40 - I absolutely love the rail stocks right now and this is the best positioned of the bunch to take advantage of higher commodity prices. I also like the cost savings element of the railroads. Most of us remember, when we were kids, we used to count the rail cars on a train when we got stopped on the way to Grandma's house. Seems like there was always about 100 cars on a good sized train. Anyway, in my first job we used to load 60 tons of chicken onto one rail car and we could load about twenty tons onto a truck. If you do the math it shows that a train, which takes two guys to drive across the country, can carry about 6,000 tons of stuff and a truck which takes one guy to drive across the country can carry about twenty tons. It's not hard to figure out that rail is a much cheaper means of shipping your product and with fuel prices climbing almost every day, people who need to move freight will continue to move toward the rails. This stock hardly ever pulls back, so maybe I should just pull the trigger and buy more. For now, I'm hoping to add to my position at my current cost basis of $108.50
Bucyrus International (BUCY) $75.36 - The coal stocks are another group I love, but as I have mentioned before on the blog, it's hard to figure out which ones stand to benefit the most. That's why I chose to go with the mining equipment stocks instead. I believe they will continue to benefit no matter which coal stocks do well. This stock is another that doesn't ever seem to pull back much. It recently split 2 for 1 and it's above my cost basis. I would like to add a little more to my position if it dropped closer to $70
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $58.05 - This is a natural gas stock which has done really well so far this year. The company has a consistent record of growing reserves and production which is what you want to see with oil and gas companies. The insider buying here has been incredible. Two weeks ago I was lucky to add to my position below $52 and I sold those shares on Friday just above $59. I still own a pretty sizable position in this stock, but if it drops below $55, I would like to buy back the shares that I sold on Friday.
Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) - This stock is very volatile, but it's also very cheap. Freeport is either the number 1 or number two producer of gold, copper and molybdenum in the world. Many analysts believe the stock will go much higher this year. I think if it can break above $125, then we will probably see an extended move higher. In the meantime, I would add to my position at or below $110, but I'm hoping we see the stock make that move above $125.
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) $75.76 - I have been lucky enough to sell most of my positio in this stock for a good profit over the last month. I have a limit order in now to sell the last portion at $80. The stock would probably have to move closer to $65 before I would consider adding to my position.
Google (GOOG) $567 - I really like Google because it's such a leader in it's industry. The share price tends to scare people, so I tell them to use the divide by ten rule. I'm not interested in adding to my position at current levels. The next earnings report should be coming up soon, so we'll need to be on the lookout for that.
Goldman Sachs (GS) $169.44 - This company is the absolute best-of-breed when it comes to the brokers. They have continually posted great earnings numbers compared to their peers and they managed to hedge themselves effectively against the sub-prime mortgage crisis. Unfortunately, it tends to trade in line with a lot of its peers on most days instead of trading on its own merits. I expect they will announce another good quarter, but the path of least resistence right now is lower. I'm very interested in adding to my position if the stock drops into the 150's
Microsoft (MSFT) $27.49 - Everyone knows about Microsoft so I definitely don't need to explain what they do. Recently, the stock has been brought down by the potential Yahoo merger. I expect the stock to trade in a tigh range until we get some resolution on the Yahoo deal. I believe, at current levels, the stock is undervalued. I would like to wait to see what happens with Yahoo before making any more moves in this name.
Quanta Services (PWR) $31.27 - This company is the leading maker of windmills, but is also involved in a lot of other businesses. Most of the businesses are related to energy. My position here consists of some Jan 2010 calls. I see this a long term play as earnings are forecast to grow by over 50% in 2009 after only fractional growth in 2008. If the stock moves below $30, I would likely add to my position.
Raytheon (RTN) $59.99 - Raytheon is one of the larger defense contractors. I like them because they have a really cheap valuation in an industry I expect to grow no matter who is the next President. That's because they are beginning to get a lot of contracts from foreign governments. Unfortunately, whenever the news of the day indicates that Senator Obama is likely to be our next President, all of the defense contractors tend to trade down. The stock is below my cost basis and I added to it at $60 on Friday. If it continues to move lower, I will continue to add shares.
US Oil Fund ETF (USO) $112.17 - I have owned this ETF a few times since last Fall. Since the oil market has been so volatile, it has been a good trading vehicle. I have been selling covered calls against my position every time I've bought. Twice I have been called out of the stock at a nice profit while I kept the money every other month and improved my cost basis. This month it looks like I will get called out of the shares again for a nice profit. I'm not looking to buy any more shares at this point and will wait until the third Friday in June to settle my position one way or the other.
United States Steel (X) $180.27 - Steel stocks are enjoying great pricing power at the moment and I'm really excited about this stock. I was luck enough to get a chance to add to my position this week at $175. I would still like to add more shares if the stock pulls back. Luckily, it's a little more volatile than BNI and BUCY, so I will probably get that chance. I don't want to look at selling until the stock is at least at $200 as I believe this company has several good quarters of earnings reports ahead of it.
Short term trades - These stock represent a small portion of my portfolio. These are names in which I believe I can take advantage of a short term overreaction to make money.
Currently, I have no trades in my account.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Strange but Wonderful Day in the Market
Today was a most unusual day in the stock market. After several days in a row of oil going lower, it rallied over $5 per barrel. This would seem to be bad news for a stock market that has been sinking lower even as oil had been selling off. Instead, the DOW rallied 214 point to finish at 12,604. Just about every sector showed strength and it was hard not to be a winner today. One stock that was down and continues to puzzle me is BE Aerospace. The stock has sold off sharply over the last week on virtually no news. Either somebody knows something or this is a tremendous buying opportunity. I continue to like the stock until I see a reason not to like it. As I've mentioned several times before, the company makes equipment which is used in airplanes. They have an advantage over competitors because the equipment they make tends to weigh less and this helps the fuel efficiency of the aircraft. Earlier this year, I read the transcript of the fourth quarter 2007 earnings report conference call. Management was very bullish and raised their guidance for 2008. They talked a lot about the Boeing 787 and how it was going to be a big driver of earnings growth going forward. However, they said it was more of a 2009 story. They also mentioned that less than 5% of their record backlog was for the 787. The only negative that I can find about the company is the theory that Jeff Mack of "Smart Money" has been reciting lately. He makes more of a general call on the airline industry and mentions Boeing rather than BEAV. He believes that the airlines are all in bad financial shape and will not be able to afford new planes. I agree that the domestic airlines are doing poorly, but the foreign airlines are doing better and they can offset some of the lost sales to the domestics. Also, I'm not sure if the domestic airlines have much choice when it comes to upgrading their fleets and I believe when they start to buy new planes they will definitely be looking to buy those that are cheaper to operate. If they are able to get by without buying a lot of new planes, they will probably have to refurbish some of their existing planes. This is also a positive for BEAV because they have a division that does just this. I know I've said it many times, but I have to repeat it again. I think this company has many ways to win and I am betting they will deliver on future earnings growth forecasts. I'm still bullish on the stock until I see something that makes me change my mind.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Is oil going to continue lower?
Over the last week or so we've seen the first sustained move lower for oil in quite awhile. For the last several months, oil has rallied on just about any news item. However, in the last week, we've seen oil sell off on just about any news item, including reports of draw-downs in supply which should be bullish for oil. I'm not sure how much lower oil will go in the short-term, but I do believe we're headed lower. Once we find the bottom, I think we can expect another rally later this year. In the meantime, I want to talk about how this affects my portfolio... I sold National Oilwell Varco (NOV) and the gold ETF (GLD) today. I wanted to reduce my exposure to oil in the short term and both of these positions would get hurt if oil continues lower. The GLD was more of a hedge against inflation, but since most people have been buying it as a hedge against higher oil prices I wanted to use it to build up some cash for other stocks I like. NOV is a terrific company and I expect it to be trading higher as we move through the year, but that doesn't change the fact that it tends to trade in line with oil. I had a profit in the stock, so I took it. If it moves down toward $75, I will probably buy it back. This stock really shouldn't get hit with the day-to-day moves in oil prices. The company builds drilling rigs and those will continue to be in high demand. The world needs more energy and it's need for energy will continue to grow in the coming years. I love this company for the long term, but sometimes I just want to lock in the gains for the short term and buy the stock back at a lower price.
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