Sunday, May 4, 2008

I'm Flattered! Jim Cramer reads my blog!

A few weeks ago I recommended buying Joy Global (JOYG) and Bucyrus (BUCY). Both stocks performed well, being up 11.5% and 15.75% respectively, through Tuesday, April 29th when I recommended taking profits. Then, on Thursday Jim Cramer recommended both stocks on his "Mad Money" show. I still like both stocks, and I would buy them again on any weakness going forward. Actually, I would buy them at the prices they were trading at on Wednesday, but Cramer took care of that by recommending them on his show and now they're both higher. The reason I recommended taking profits was because I was worried about what the Fed might say or do on Wednesday. Their meeting came and went, with the FOMC lowering their "overnight lending rate" by 25 basis points. However, as is usually the case, the statement released by the Fed was more important than what they did with interest rates. The Fed was expected to signal an end to interest rate cuts, but instead they left the door open for more cuts in the future. If they had made a statement that said the interest rate cuts are over, then I think both stocks would have suffered in the short term. This is because the dollar would have strengthened, which would have put pressure on commodity prices and then rightly or wrongly, all stocks related to commodity prices would have suffered for awhile. I felt it was better to lock in the gains than to take a chance on losing them to the Fed. Now, eventually I expect the interest rate cuts will come to an end and the strengthening dollar scenario will play out. Until then, I think you can buy the commodity plays that have done so well especially the ones that pulled back last week such as Mosaic (MOS), Potash (POT), Monsanto (MON), Apache (APA), Chesapeak Energy (CHK) and Transocean (RIG).

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