Is oil going to continue lower?

Over the last week or so we've seen the first sustained move lower for oil in quite awhile. For the last several months, oil has rallied on just about any news item. However, in the last week, we've seen oil sell off on just about any news item, including reports of draw-downs in supply which should be bullish for oil. I'm not sure how much lower oil will go in the short-term, but I do believe we're headed lower. Once we find the bottom, I think we can expect another rally later this year. In the meantime, I want to talk about how this affects my portfolio... I sold National Oilwell Varco (NOV) and the gold ETF (GLD) today. I wanted to reduce my exposure to oil in the short term and both of these positions would get hurt if oil continues lower. The GLD was more of a hedge against inflation, but since most people have been buying it as a hedge against higher oil prices I wanted to use it to build up some cash for other stocks I like. NOV is a terrific company and I expect it to be trading higher as we move through the year, but that doesn't change the fact that it tends to trade in line with oil. I had a profit in the stock, so I took it. If it moves down toward $75, I will probably buy it back. This stock really shouldn't get hit with the day-to-day moves in oil prices. The company builds drilling rigs and those will continue to be in high demand. The world needs more energy and it's need for energy will continue to grow in the coming years. I love this company for the long term, but sometimes I just want to lock in the gains for the short term and buy the stock back at a lower price.