Sunday, June 15, 2008

Sunday June 15th, 2008 Weekly Roundup

This was a pretty volatile week in the market, but we managed to end at about the same place we started on the major averages. On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday it seemed like the market would never have another up day, but the sun came out on Thursday and Friday to give us a little relief. The DOW finished Friday at 12,307.35. It was a pretty active week in my portfolio as I eliminated four names and added two. I sold out of Philip Morris International (PM), BE Aerospace (BEAV), Microsoft (MSFT) and Foster Wheeler (FWLT). On PM, I decided to sell out of the position and buy more Altriawhen it drifted below $21. These two companies used to be one until they split earlier this year, so their business is the same. However, PM is a totally international company now unlike MO which is only in the US. With all the talk of a stronger dollar early in the week, I decided it was time to trade out of PM. I'm not sure how much stronger the dollar will get, but as it strengthens, it will be bad news for PM. With BEAV, I was lucky enough to get a pop on Monday to get out of some of my position at $30. I sold the rest on Thursday. I just came to the realization that this stock is probably going lower in the short term and whether the street is right or not, the sentiment is that all of their customer are going out of business. I don't believe that's the case, but I will sit on the sidelines for now. We finally got a resolution in the MSFT/YHOO deal and MSFT popped nicely on Friday because of it. I decided to get out of the stock when the stock went up. I was holding a very small position in FWLT and was hoping to seel it at $80, but the stock weakened on a downgrade early in the week and I decided to take my gains while I still had them. The first of my two new positions is Wal Mart (WMT). I believe the company will continue to benefit from the weakening economic situation as consumers trade down from other retailers. This is one of the safest stocks you could ever invest in and it's not bad as far as a dividend growth play either. On Friday I added a name that I been looking at for a long time in Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA). The company is one of the leading generic drug makers and has had consistent earnings growth for several years. Thestock price has been drifting lower so far this year until I decided it was time to buy at $42.60.

Weekly Roundup

The Dividend Growth Stocks will now be named "The Warren Buffet Stocks" because I view these as long term holdings. These are great companies with which I build the foundation of my portfolio.

Eaton Vance Tax Advantaged Dividend Income Fund (EVT) $24.45 - The fund was little changed for the week. It usually tracks pretty closely with the overall market. It would have to drop below $23 before I considered adding to my position.

General Electric (GE) $29.15 - Last week I said I wanted to add to my position at $29.75. That's exactly wat I di as the stock dropped to my price on Thursday. I tried to add even more on Friday as the stock was down early in the day. I put in a limit order to buy at $28.50, but the stock never made it that low. GE is really cheap at these levels and there has been heavy insider buying lately. Hopefull, the stock will drop to $28.50 in the next day or two. I want to add more shares of this tock, but I may have to pay more that the $28.50 to get them now.

Coca Cola (KO) $55.42 - The stock was up big on Tuesday on an upgrade from an analyst who said earnings would be great this quarter on the back of a weak dollar. On Friday the stock sold off as the largest bottler of Coke products in Europe said that unit case volume growth would come in at 6% this year instead of the previously forecast 7%. The upgrade was a surprise to me, even though I agree with the analyst. I think investors started to focus on how things look going forward as we moved on in the week and that's why it sold off from the $58+ close on Tuesday. If the dollar makes a large move upward against other currencies, KO will get hit. However, I love this stock for the long term and would love to add to my position in the low 50's.

McDonald's (MCD) $59.95 - The stock rallied this week on string same store sales for the month of May year over year. The company is expanding overseas while keeping a strong foothold here in the US. They are probably also benefiting from consumers trading down from the casual dining space as well. I'm not looking to add to my position at these levels.

Altria (MO) $20.90 - I added to my position this week at $21.05 one day before it went ex-dividend, so in effect I was buying the shares at $20.75. The stock has been under pressure lately, but I view this as a great buying opportunity as the stock now yields 5.5%. The company is buying back stock and will raise the dividend within the year. I expect I'll look back on this purchase in about five years and be really pleased.

US Bancorp (USB) $30.83 - Early in the week the financials sold off and took down USB with it. I think this is a case of throwing out the baby with the bathwater. The stock is looking really attractive at these levels and I want to add to my position at $30. I may go ahead and pull the trigger as buying at the current price would be a great deal too.

From now on the "Growth Stocks" portfolio will be known as the "Jim Cramer" portfolio. These are stocks I believe are benefiting from current trends and will go higher over the next twelve to eighteen months.

Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) $104.68 - Shipping goods by rail is both less expensive and more environmentally friendly. Higher commodities prices are also helping the company push through price increases. I added to my position twice this week and I'm happy to own the stock at these levels. I would probably add more shares if the stock dropped below $100.

Bucyrus International (BUCY) $75.14 - The coal stocks have been on fire and I believe this name will go higher over time. In the short term it may pull back because it's had a great run.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $59.26 - Natural gas is another area that's been doing well and this company's CEO has been adding millions of shares this year. You have to love that situation. I would add to my position if the stock dropped into the low 50's.

Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) $123.30 - It was a good week for the stock as it approached its 52 week high. Recent earthquakes in China shold lend support to the price of copper which is this company's main line of business.

Google (GOOG) %571.51 - Stock was little changed this week. The only news is that the company may have an agreement with YHOO since the Microsoft deal is now off the table. I look forward to the next quarterly earnings report. Hopefull the company can blow away the numbers as they did last quarter.

Goldman Sachs (GS) $178.29 - It was a pretty wild week as the stock reversed course and finished about nine points higher than last week. The company is set to announce earnings this week and I expect them to beat the number as they usually do. Hopefully, we'll get a good enough pop on the stock to unload some shares closer to $200.

Quanta Services (PWR) $33.34 - It was fairly quiet week for the stock, but it managed to move higher. I think the earnings estimates for this company are too low as our electricity grid is in bad need of repair and some state governments have begun to initiate quotas on renewable energy. The company stands to benefit from both of these situations. I'm up on this stock, but would add to my position on a pullback.

Raytheon (RTN) $58.04 - This stock has been getting hammered lately. I think the culprit has been speculation that Barrack Obama will be the next President. While that would probably mean a smaller defense budget, I don't think it nearly means the end of the company. A couple of the reasons I bought the stock were its cheap valuation and the fact that governments around the world are spending money on defense. This stock may be headed lower in the short term, but I want to wait until the stock drops to $55 before adding to my position.

Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) $42.50 - This is a new addition to the portfolio. I have liked this stock for a long time, but just never got the right opportunity to add it to the portfolio. Teva is one of the world's leading makers of generic drugs. The company stands to benefit from our aging population, which will drive demand for drugs in general, and the need to lower medical costs which leads to more generic drug buying. I bought the stock this week at $42.60 and I would love to add to my position if it went lower.

US Oil Fund (USO) $109.20 - I have sold calls against my position which expire this Friday. We'll see where the stock finishes on Friday and whether I have to close out my position or get to sell more calls for July.

Wal Mart (WMT) $59.18 - This company is benefitting from consumers trading down. I like it as a play on our weakening economy. I would like to add to my position below $58.

US Steel (X) $174.61 - I love the fundamental story in this stock. However, it hasn't been acting very well on a technical basis. It will be interesting to see what it does this week after a large move upward on Friday. Hopefully, it will move above $185 in the near term which is a level I have identified as resistance .

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